Economy

China trade war could get India new oil suppliers from US

China trade war could get India new oil suppliers from US

Once U.S. sanctions are fully implemented, FGE estimated 1.7 to 2 million bpd of crude and condensate would be cut out of markets.

So far, WTI's relative resiliency is not something that would please USA president Donald Trump, who in tearing up the nuclear deal with Iran and reimposing sanctions against the Islamic republic, is betting that Saudi Arabia and other countries will not only make up for the shortfall in Iranian crude exports but also flood the market with enough product to reduce gas prices at the American pump.

It shows the year-on-year percentage growth in U.S. non-farm payrolls, splitting the results by oil and non-oil producing states.

"Uncertainties abound when it comes to the oil balance for the remainder of the year", said Stephen Brennock, analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates.

The United States and China have started a trade war on Friday, introducing bilateral tariffs worth 34 billion Dollars, while not showing willingness to start talks with a view to reaching a ceasefire.

The inventories at Cushing, which is the delivery point of United States crude futures, plummeted to their lowest in three and a half years, according to the data that was shown on Thursday.

Global benchmark Brent rose 37 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $77.48 a barrel by 0305 GMT.

China has indicated that it could place a tariff of 25% on US oil.

Looming larger over markets is the U.S./China trade dispute.

Brent was also being pressured by expectations of higher Saudi and Russian Federation productions, which impact Europe and Asia, where Brent is the benchmark, more than the markets dominated by the United States crude prices.

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"If China imposes tariffs, their refineries won't buy USA crude since it would cost more", Sandy Fielden, director of research for commodities and energy at Morningstar Inc., said by telephone.

USA markets also garnered support from a government employment report showing better-than-expected growth in jobs.

Tariffs would make U.S. oil uncompetitive in China.

Concerns that oil prices will be weighed down by a trade conflict between the United States and China have faded to some extent, analysts said.

John Driscoll, director of consultancy JTD Energy, suggested that China may even replace American oil with crude from Iran: "They [Chinese importers] are not going to be intimidated or swayed by USA sanctions".

Oil prices were mixed on Friday, with short-covering pushing up US crude futures while Brent slipped on global trade tensions and increased Saudi production.

"At the same time, Venezuela can do nothing to stop its own production decline and will lose another 400,000 bpd by year-end with production going to below 1 million bpd", FGE said, adding that another 300,000 bpd of Libyan capacity was disrupted.

"The embassy of the Republic of Korea denies any claims that it would not lift any Iranian crude and condensate in July", the South Korean embassy responded to the report.

Saudi Arabia told Opec that it increased production by nearly 500,000 barrels per day last month.


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